NextEra NFL http://www.nexteranfl.com The Hub For The Latest NFL News & Expert Analysis Fri, 24 May 2013 19:28:29 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 2014 NFL Draft – Linebacker Class Pre-Season Preview http://www.nexteranfl.com/2265/2014-nfl-draft-linebacker-class-pre-season-preview/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2014-nfl-draft-linebacker-class-pre-season-preview http://www.nexteranfl.com/2265/2014-nfl-draft-linebacker-class-pre-season-preview/#comments Fri, 24 May 2013 19:27:24 +0000 Jamie Kelly http://www.nexteranfl.com/?p=2265 With the continuing evolution of the pass game at the NFL level, linebackers these days are required to be tremendous athletes, with the ability to cover athletic Tight Ends such as Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. On this list, we are looking at pure linebacker prospects, that will either play inside linebacker in the 34 [...]]]>

With the continuing evolution of the pass game at the NFL level, linebackers these days are required to be tremendous athletes, with the ability to cover athletic Tight Ends such as Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.

On this list, we are looking at pure linebacker prospects, that will either play inside linebacker in the 34 or in the 43 defense. The athletic pass rush guys have been covered somewhat in the pass rusher preview.

Let’s take a look at our top 5 Linebackers heading into the year, rated using our RAP system. (I have also listed the position, for which they received the highest RAP grade).

* Denotes underclassmen

1. C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama – RAP (102.9) (34 ILB)

cj mosley

Player Comparison – Bruce Carter

C.J. Mosley is the complete linebacker. A 3 down backer that can hit with the best with them and chase most guys down with his +/- 4.60 speed. Mosley has superb instincts and does a great job taking on and shedding blocks.

Mosley is the clear leader of the Crimson Tide Defense and has played a major role in the past two BCS National Championship wins.

He could play any of the true linebacker spots, but has received the highest grade as a 34 ILB, due to his experience in that role at Alabama.

 

2. A.J. Johnson*, ILB, Tennessee– RAP (88.6) (34 ILB)

a.j. johnson

Player Comparison – Donta Hightower

Johnson is your traditional down-hill thumper linebacker. He is a tremendously powerful tackler and really hits gaps with speed & power making him a factor on every run play.

His production is glittering, leading the powerhouse SEC conference in tackles, on a rather average Tennessee football team.

I have questions surrounding his coverage skills and also whether he has the speed to go sideline to sideline. For now i’ve given him the benefit of doubt and say he can be a 3 down guy and a 43 linebacker.

Even so his best position would seem to be an inside guy in a 34 scheme where his big time power and lack of elite speed, would fit the best.


 

3. Ryan Shazier*, OLB, Ohio State – RAP (88.6) (43 WLB)

Shazier1

Player Comparison – Lavonte David

Shazier has the physical skill set NFL teams are clamoring for. With +/- 4.60 and “slenderish” frame he seems to be a perfect fit as a 43 Will that can play a lot in coverage.

His production is jaw dropping, mainly due to the fact he is a far better athlete, than anybody he faced in the Big Ten. Whether he would have the same production in the SEC, for example is the question i would love to know the answer to.

For a guy with a lot of stats, I wasn’t overwhelmed with Shazier’s instincts, physicality or tackling technique. He plays more like a safety  and while he makes the occasional big hit, he misses easier tackles due to poor technique.

Shazier is only entering his junior season, so he still has time to clear some of those things up.

 

4. Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin – RAP (83.5) (43 WLB)

chris borland

Player comparison – Zach Thomas

Let’s get the negative out of the way first. Yes, Chris Borland may only be 5’11″, but I really like his chances of going in the top 2 rounds of the 2014 draft.

Borland is incredibly explosive and was active on every play, I watched on film. He’s a good, not great tackler at the moment, as he has a few technique issues, but he can lay the wood when he wants to.

He has superb instincts and flows to the ball very nicely. He is also very good in coverage, but will bigger NFL tight ends be able to abuse Borland in man coverage, due to the height difference?

His height would probably be less of a factor in the will spot, than if he was at his middle linebacker college position.

 

5. Christian Jones, LB, Florida State – RAP (83.2) (43 MLB)

Miami+v+Florida+State+dDPv7nQGaG5l

Player Comparison – Alec Ogletree

Christian Jones has a rare combination of size and speed that will likely attract a lot of attention next April (Wait i mean May?).

He has pretty good instincts and plays the run with physicality.his long arms ensures he can get off blocks. His long arms ensures he can get off blocks and his speed allows him to be a factor behind the line of scrimmage (7 TFLs).

Jones was an active special teams guy at Florida State, adding another edge of versatility to the package.

I like Jones best as a middle linebacker in a 43, if he can put on just a bit of bulk. I’m not sold on his hips or his ability to turn and run in coverage yet, so playing inside will negate those issues somewhat, rather than if he was forced to play at the Will position.

 

Other LB’s to watch for

  • Shayne Skov, LB, Stanford.
  • Prince Shembo, LB, Notre Dame.
  • Max Bullough, LB, Michigan State.
  • Andrew Jackson, LB, Western Kentucky.
  • Boseko Lokombu, LB, Oregon.

 

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Is There a Right Way To Approach the NFL Draft? http://www.nexteranfl.com/2249/approach-nfl-draft/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=approach-nfl-draft http://www.nexteranfl.com/2249/approach-nfl-draft/#comments Wed, 22 May 2013 12:27:26 +0000 Jamie Kelly http://www.nexteranfl.com/?p=2249 This is no doubt this is a big topic of conversation among the higher ups in NFL organisations. Is there a right way to approach the draft? Are we approaching it the wrong way? They are such complex questions, that we have never really had a clear definitive answer. To find an answer, I delved [...]]]>

This is no doubt this is a big topic of conversation among the higher ups in NFL organisations. Is there a right way to approach the draft? Are we approaching it the wrong way? They are such complex questions, that we have never really had a clear definitive answer.

To find an answer, I delved into the statistics from the 2009 to 2012 NFL Drafts. My goal was to chart various results from # of picks per team to the number of pro bowlers drafted during that time. I excluded teams that have recently had significant philosophical changes in the front office (Jets, Jags, Panthers, Eagles, Browns, Indy, Rams and Raiders) from the research, as it was difficult to establish trends with different philosophies being utilized throughout the research period range.

Here were the results of my findings (more breakdown below results). (Pro Bowl/ All Pro Numbers [no alternates included] courtesy of Pro Football Reference and Starter data courtesy of Ourlads NFL Depth Charts).

This first chart looks at the number of draft picks used by each team in the 2009 to 2012 NFL Drafts. We then look at how many of those players are still on the roster as of Mid-May 2013, and give a % figure of the number of draft picks still on the roster.

Team No of Picks On Roster % Still on Roster
Atlanta Falcons 27 22 81.5
Green Bay Packers 33 26 78.8
Baltimore Ravens 29 22 75.9
Minnesota Vikings 35 26 74.3
New Orleans Saints 21 15 71.4
Tennessee Titans 32 22 68.8
Washington Redskins 33 22 66.7
Cincinnati Bengals 38 25 65.8
Seattle Seahawks 35 23 65.7
Detroit Lions 29 19 65.5
New York Giants 31 20 64.5
Houston Texans 33 21 63.6
Miami Dolphins 33 21 63.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 19 63.3
Arizona Cardinals 30 19 63.3
Denver Broncos 35 22 62.9
San Diego Chargers 29 18 62.1
Kansas City Chiefs 33 20 60.6
Buffalo Bills 35 21 60.0
San Francisco 49ers 32 18 56.3
Pittsburgh Steelers 36 20 55.6
Chicago Bears 27 15 55.6
New England Patriots 40 20 50.0
Dallas Cowboys 33 15 45.5

 

The second chart looks at the number of starters (according to Ourlads in Mid May 2013) (being a starter on another NFL Team did count, in those cases) in relation to the number of picks used and the number of players still on the roster.

 

Team Starters % Starters/ Picks % Starters / Players on Roster
Atlanta Falcons 12 44.4 54.5
Houston Texans 11 33.3 52.4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 33.3 52.6
Tennessee Titans 10 31.3 45.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 11 30.6 55.0
Miami Dolphins 10 30.3 47.6
Arizona Cardinals 9 30.0 47.4
Cincinnati Bengals 11 28.9 44.0
Minnesota Vikings 10 28.6 38.5
Buffalo Bills 10 28.6 47.6
Detroit Lions 8 27.6 42.1
San Diego Chargers 8 27.6 44.4
New England Patriots 11 27.5 55.0
Green Bay Packers 9 27.3 34.6
Kansas City Chiefs 9 27.3 45.0
Chicago Bears 7 25.9 46.7
Seattle Seahawks 9 25.7 39.1
Denver Broncos 9 25.7 40.9
Baltimore Ravens 7 24.1 31.8
New Orleans Saints 5 23.8 33.3
Washington Redskins 7 21.2 31.8
Dallas Cowboys 7 21.2 46.7
New York Giants 6 19.4 30.0
San Francisco 49ers 6 18.8 33.3

 

This third and final chart looks at the number of Pro Bowlers from the 2009 to 2012 NFL Draft. (No Alternates/ Players nominated to the All-Pro teams, but not Pro Bowl a.k.a Richard Sherman were included). Those numbers are then used in relation to the number of picks, number of players still on the roster and the number of starters.

 

Team Pro Bowlers % PBs/ Picks %PBs/ Roster % PBs/ Starters
Seattle Seahawks 5 14.3 21.7 55.6
New Orleans Saints 2 9.5 13.3 40.0
San Francisco 49ers 3 9.4 16.7 50.0
Washington Redskins 3 9.1 13.6 42.9
Cincinnati Bengals 3 7.9 12.0 27.3
Atlanta Falcons 2 7.4 9.1 16.7
Arizona Cardinals 2 6.7 10.5 22.2
Houston Texans 2 6.1 9.5 18.2
Green Bay Packers 2 6.1 7.7 22.2
Pittsburgh Steelers 2 5.6 10.0 18.2
New England Patriots 2 5.0 10.0 18.2
Chicago Bears 1 3.7 6.7 14.3
Detroit Lions 1 3.4 5.3 12.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 3.3 5.3 10.0
New York Giants 1 3.2 5.0 16.7
Kansas City Chiefs 1 3.0 5.0 11.1
Minnesota Vikings 1 2.9 3.8 10.0
Buffalo Bills 1 2.9 4.8 10.0
Denver Broncos 1 2.9 4.5 11.1
Tennessee Titans 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami Dolphins 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego Chargers 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baltimore Ravens 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dallas Cowboys 0 0.0 0.0 0.0

 

Digging deeper into the numbers it became apparent, the starter data in the second chart didn’t yield any particularly useful information. That was mostly down to the fact there are a variety of factors why a player can be starting and it may not always be because he is good enough to warrant that position.

The first (sorted by % players still on roster) and third chart (sorted by % Pro Bowlers/ Picks) did reveal some interesting findings. The top 5 teams on both charts were all playoff teams in 2012, except for the New Orleans Saints.

The Saints were somewhat a “statistical wildcard” in these findings for a number of factors:-

  • “Bountygate” took draft picks away from the franchise, reducing the amount of data available
  • The suspension of Head Coach Sean Payton clearly hampered on-field performance.
  • One of the Saints two Pro Bowl selection was a Punter Thomas Morstead, that doesn’t have as big of an impact on wins/ losses as say a Defensive End does.

What was also interesting was that (except for the Saints again) that no team was in the top 5 on both of the lists, clearly indicating difference in strategies.

So is there a right way to do the NFL Draft?

It turns out there isn’t just one way, there are two strategies that work and the research also indicates the more a team commits to a particular strategy, the more success they will have. Let’s take a look at each strategy…

Strategy 1 – Ensure your Draft Picks consistently make the roster

It sounds a bit obvious, but it’s not something you can really force, unless you enter the draft with this philosophy in mind. To make this work each pick/ player must have been selected with a role in mind and/ or selected because that player fits the personality type of that team. Both of these maximize a player’s chances of making and staying on the roster for the long haul. Clearly at times a player simply isn’t good enough or gets beat out by the competition, but entering with this mindset ensures team and roster continuity from year to year.

In recent times, no two teams have operated this strategy better than the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers. Both of these teams rarely takes risks on players in the draft, instead opt to pick guys they know fit the organisation, its why the % of draft picks still on the roster is so high for Atlanta (81.5%) and Green Bay (78.8%).

Because Atlanta were so good at retaining their own guys from year to year, it allowed them to make the trade for WR Julio Jones. Atlanta were confident in his ability to be a star but also knew they could find guys that would make the roster later on in the draft, ensuring the philosophy wasn’t lost.

Operating this approach demands that you look at the draft as the foundation of your roster for years to come and not become too obsessed with Free Agency. One our two players a year on decent money, is about the maximum you can really get away with before you stray away from the intended philosophy.

Baltimore (75.9%) and Minnesota (74.3%) also do a great job of retaining their own guys. It is why you should expect the Ravens not to drop off as much as you think next season.

 

Strategy 2 – Take some risks, let’s take the best talent available

Draft picks are to be used on the most talented players and accept you won’t hit on every single one, the goal here is to draft as many Pro Bowl caliber players as you can, if some don’t make the cut, then so be it.

The key stat to focus on with this strategy is the % number of pro bowlers/ number of picks. Every pick is seen as an opportunity to grab a future starter or even future star, the higher the percentage is, the more talent there is at the top of the roster.

In recent times, Seattle (14.3%), San Francisco (9.4%), Washington (9.1%) and Cincinnati (7.9%) are the leaders in this area. Seattle’s number is quite ridiculous, indicating that nearly 1 out of every 7 picks from 2009 to 2012 was a Pro Bowler! Working the draft in this manner, is why Seattle are most people’s favorite to win the Superbowl.

Taking risks does obviously have some down side to it. While the top end of the roster is very strong, the middle and bottom of the roster may be weakened as a result. Free Agency must be used as part of this strategy to fill gaps on the roster with 1 year deals, until better players can be found.

Seattle and San Francisco have been very active this off-season in FA, which has allowed them to really attack the draft, in an effort to add more stars to their roster.

 

Conclusion

Is one strategy better than the other? It really depends on what you want to achieve organizationally.

Strategy 2 is more likely to deliver you a Superbowl in the near future, but can that success be sustained over a longer period of time?

Strategy 1, if utilized right will ensure your team becomes a consistent contender for a long time, but becoming a dominant force requires star players, something this strategy can’t always deliver.

I wouldn’t say either way is particularly better, what must happen though, is full organizational commitment to that philosophy as the numbers rather speak for themselves, when we are discussing making the play-offs.

Now, before we go on and say this is definitively how a team can draft their way to becoming a play-off team, there are obviously exceptions and other ways a team can become a play-off team. Out of the 11 playoff teams (Indy was not included), 8 have been talked about in this draft data, what about the other 3 (Texans, Broncos & Patriots) how did they become so successful?

For the Broncos and Patriots its rather obvious, they have two great quarterbacks in Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Having a Hall of Fame QB covers up a lot of potential issues on a roster and all but guarantees that franchise a spot in the playoffs.

The Texans, were in the middle of the pack on both lists, but were a playoff team? There are several reasons for that namely their success in Free Agency, acquiring a Pro Bowl Corner in Jonathon Joseph and their success in the undrafted market with Arian Foster among others. The undrafted market is so important, but was difficult to quantify in the research.

Pretty much what it comes down to either your fortunate to find a Hall of Fame caliber QB, get lucky with undrafted players and big money Free Agents or you give in and follow one of the two draft strategies.

 

This report was compiled by Jamie Kelly and the NextEra NFL team. You can follow Jamie on twitter @NextEraDraft or send an email to jamie.kelly@nexterasportsmedia.com

All findings in this report are owned by NextEra Sports Media Ltd. Referencing the information in this article is permitted, whole sale re-distribution or re-posting is not allowed unless prior consent has been given by NextEra Sports Media Ltd.

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2013 NFL Draft Value Evaluations – The Worst 8 http://www.nexteranfl.com/2234/2013-nfl-draft-evaluations-worst-8/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2013-nfl-draft-evaluations-worst-8 http://www.nexteranfl.com/2234/2013-nfl-draft-evaluations-worst-8/#comments Mon, 20 May 2013 12:52:02 +0000 Jamie Kelly http://www.nexteranfl.com/?p=2234 It’s time to reveal the final 8 teams on our 2013 NFL Draft Value Evaluation Rankings. For information, on how this grading worked check out Part 1. Part 1 – Top 8 Part 2 – 9 to 16 Part 3 – 17 to 24   Okay, let’s kick it off with the 25th ranked team on [...]]]>

It’s time to reveal the final 8 teams on our 2013 NFL Draft Value Evaluation Rankings. For information, on how this grading worked check out Part 1.

Part 1 – Top 8

Part 2 – 9 to 16

Part 3 – 17 to 24

 

Okay, let’s kick it off with the 25th ranked team on this countdown…

25. Chicago Bears (-21.35)

I didn’t love the Bears first two picks. Kyle Long (-45.0) is a versatile lineman that could be a borderline starter at a couple positions, but to select him in the first round was too rich for my blood.

Jon Bostic (-31.2) was also high for me, as i didn’t see the athleticism or instincts from him to indicate that he could start in this league.

After the first two rounds, I loved what the Bears did, LB Khaseem Greene (+12.9), RT Jordan Mills (+8.0) & Marquess Wilson (+24.9) could all end up starting for Chicago at some point.

Cornelius Washington (+1.1) was also a nice pick.

 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-21.45)

The second of our wildcard teams was the Bucs, as they traded their 13th Overall pick away for CB Darrelle Revis. As with Percy Harvin & the Seahawks i gave the Revis trade (+10), due to the player ability and value of the big contract.

QB Mike Glennon (-1.4) and CB Jonathon Banks (+2.4) were both decent picks. I wanted to see DE William Gholston (-7.2) in a 34 scheme, as i didn’t like any fit in a 43 scheme.

I had Akeem Spence rated as a UDFA, so for him to go in the 4th round, was a big reach for me (-26.3).

 

27. New York Giants (-35.05)

OL Justin Pugh (-45.2) went way to high in my opinion. I’m not sure he can play Tackle in the NFL and i’m concerned how well he will be able to transition to Guard.

DT Hankins’s stock dropped remarkably since the start of 2012 CFB season. I was never a big fan, so the 2nd round was a little reach (-5.55) but not that much of a big deal.

I liked the DaMontre Moore (+7.4) and Cooper Taylor (+18.3) picks a lot. Ryan Nassib (-12.7) was way over-rated throughout the process, that said i think he will be a decent back-up to Eli in New York.

 

28. Detroit Lions (-38.6)

It’s time for the worst individual pick of the entire draft (according to this system). To select Ezekiel Ansah (-57.2) with the 5th Overall pick was a ridiculous idea, that i am confident the Lions will regret for quite some time.

It’s a shame really as the rest of the Lions draft actually scored pretty well. I like Darius Slay (-11.1), but had him rated towards the bottom of the second, hence the score differential.

The picks of Larry Warford (+0.8), DE Devin Taylor (+8.9), WR Corey Fuller (+14.7) and TE Michael Williams (+7.8) all earned positive grades.

 

 

29. Miami Dolphins (-47.35)

The trade-up for Dion Jordan was very bold by the Dolphins, but Im not convinced it was the best thing to do. Jordan (-28.4) had a mid first round grade from me, as i was concerned by his weight, shoulder injury and production. So to go 3rd overall would be considered a reach here.

CB Jamar Taylor (+1.05) was bang on value, but successive reaches with CB Will Davis (-15.2), G Dallas Thomas (-6.8), LB Jelani Jenkins (-10.4) & TE Dion Sims (-9.5) really damaged the overall score.

A good 5th round pick in RB Mike Gileslee (+7.6) and a good UDFA pickup in WR Terrell Sinkfield (+10.6) made the score look a little bit better.

Any time you take a kicker in the 5th round or higher, you’ll get a little bit of abuse for it and the Dolphins pick of K Caleb Sturgis (-6.3) is no different.

 

30. Cleveland Browns (-52.95)

Like Ansah, Barkevious Mingo had too many question marks to take in the top 10 and subsequently receives a (-54.8) grade.

I’m not sure that Mingo will ever develop into a good NFL starter, so i was never able to give him a first round grade, even though he has some athletic ability.

I love the CB Leon McFadden (+1.8) pick and UDFA acquisitions C Braxton Cave (+6.05) and T Chris Faulk (+4.0).

Cleveland also received a (-10) penalty for only selecting 5 players.

 

31. New York Jets (-62.55)

The poor New York Jets, just can’t catch a break.

They started things off well, with the CB Dee Milliner (-1.8) pick, but then things took a turn for the worst. DT Sheldon Richardson (-33.6) has “bust” written all over him, QB Geno Smith (-6.75) isn’t the best QB in the world and OT Aday Aboushi (-22.2) was one of the worst players i graded this year.

G Brian Winters (-1.7) was an okay pick and think he could become a starter for the Jets, but on the whole, things could have gone better for New York.

 

32. Buffalo Bills (-67.65)

We reach the final team on our countdown and I’m sorry Buffalo fans.

As a person i really like and admire E.J. Manuel (-27.8), but as a starting NFL QB im less enthusiastic. If he could have been had for a second round pick, he would have been worth the risk, but as a first rounder, the pressure will be on him to perform right away.

WR Robert Woods (-7.5) is a solid receiver that should help Buffalo, but he doesn’t have much upside. WR Marquise Goodwin (-5.2) has a ton of speed, but there probably were better receivers available. FS Duke Williams (-6.1) has had some off-the-field issues, but has some talent.

LB Kiko Alonso (-47.1) is another player who has big time “bust” potential. His long list of off-the-field concerns, make me worry he could go the way of WR Titus Young. The Buffalo staff need to be on him every day to avoid that happening.

A few nice UDFA’s WR Brandon Kaufman (+12.25), LB Keith Pough (+6.75) and WR Da-Rick Rogers (+3.85) make the score a little better.

 

 

That’s it for this mini-series, make sure to take a look at the other installments in this series:

Part 1 – Top 8

Part 2 – 9 to 16

Part 3 – 17 to 24

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2014 NFL Draft – Interior Defensive Lineman Class Pre-Season Preview http://www.nexteranfl.com/2220/2014-nfl-draft-interior-defensive-lineman-class-pre-season-preview/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2014-nfl-draft-interior-defensive-lineman-class-pre-season-preview http://www.nexteranfl.com/2220/2014-nfl-draft-interior-defensive-lineman-class-pre-season-preview/#comments Sun, 19 May 2013 17:14:21 +0000 Jamie Kelly http://www.nexteranfl.com/?p=2220 The interior defensive lineman position is always one of the most volatile positions in any NFL Draft to evaluate. Since 2000, the Defensive Tackle position in the first round, has had roughly a 50/50 “hit” rate, one of the worst out of every position. This years class has a good amount of talent again and [...]]]>

The interior defensive lineman position is always one of the most volatile positions in any NFL Draft to evaluate. Since 2000, the Defensive Tackle position in the first round, has had roughly a 50/50 “hit” rate, one of the worst out of every position.

This years class has a good amount of talent again and should eventually see at least 3 of these guys go in the first round.

Let’s take a look at our top 5 Interior Defensive Lineman heading into the year, rated using our RAP system. (I have also listed the position, for which they received the highest RAP grade).

* Denotes underclassmen

1. Louis Nix III*, DT, Notre Dame – RAP (100.5) (43 DT{2Gap})

Louis Nix

Player Comparison – B.J. Raji

Louis Nix is a rare athlete at 6’3″, 326, that possess amazing movement skills and burst for a man his size.

He can penetrate O-Line gaps with his speed, can push the pocket with his immense strength and can hold his own at the point of attack. This versatility allows Nix to be a starting NFL prospect at multiple positions, including 43 DT, 34 NT & 34 DE.

What separates Nix from other similarly skilled big guys we’ve seen in recent years, is his relentless motor. Even in the second half of the BCS Championship game  (when the game was effectively over), he was still giving 110%.

 

2. Aaron Lynch*, DE/ DT, South Florida– RAP (92.1) (34 DE)

aaron-lynch

Player Comparison – J.J. Watt

Aaron Lynch is quite a unique case. After a stunning true freshman season at the University of Notre Dame in 2011, he elected to transfer to South Florida, because of family issues. Due to NCAA rules, Lynch was forced to sit out the 2012 season, following his transfer.

Off the 2011 film, Lynch has all the makings of a first round pick, but the big question is how will he react after a year of sitting out?

If he can recover his 2011 form, he will get NFL scouts really excited. In the 2011 bowl game against Florida State, Lynch absolutely dominated the line of scrimmage as a True Freshman. He has a great burst off the snap and nice array of pass rush technique and raw power.

I see a lot of similar things out of Lynch as you see with Texans DE J.J. Watt and can see him playing the same 34 Defensive End position.


 

3. Stephon Tuitt, DE/ DT, Notre Dame – RAP (92.0) (34 DE)

tuitt

Player Comparison – Calais Campbell

I swear this is the last Golden Domer on this list. Tuitt has an imposing 6’5″, 303 frame and has the physical ability to be a good NFL pro.

Although Tuitt has had some very impressive production (11 sacks in 2012), there still is quite a bit of development needed, before he can produce significantly in the NFL. He needs to work on his pass rush technique and given his frame he should be better at shedding blocks than he currently is.

He should be able to play 34 DE or 43 DT in the NFL. I would say he should be better at 34 DE, where he can attack Offensive Tackles more of the time and have more of an impact knocking down passes.

 

4. Will Sutton, DE/ DT, Arizona State – RAP (85.7) (43 DT {1 Gap})

NCAA Football: Fight Hunger Bowl-Navy vs Arizona State

Player comparison – Geno Atkins

At 6’0″, 280 lbs, Will Sutton doesn’t have the prototypical size you look for, that’s not to say though, that Sutton isn’t a top prospect. Despite the size disadvantage, he utilities his great burst to constantly penetrate into the backfield, racking up 23.5 TFLs and 12 sacks in 2012.

Transitioning to a full time NFL starter may be difficult for Sutton. He isn’t great against the run and if the team elects to bulk up Sutton, would that take away from his explosiveness?

If i was an NFL team I would love to use Sutton as part of a rotation. Use him at the 3 technique spot on a rotational basis on 1st/ 2nd down and then on every 3rd down and just let him get after the Quarterback. There is little point using him too much on run downs, as it will reduce his effectiveness on pass downs.

 

5. Daniel McCullers, DT, Tennessee – RAP (75.2) (34 NT)

daniel-mccullers-11-8.2800-650

Player Comparison – William “Refrigerator” Perry

McCullers is one big old boy. At one point in his college career he was at 6’8″, 370 lbs! He has since cut that weight down a bit towards 350, but he is still a virtually immovable object.

McCullers has little to no upside as a pass rusher and is effectively a run defender only. A system that allows him to play the nose and block up both A gaps would suit him perfectly.

 

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2013 NFL Draft Value Evaluations – 17 to 24 http://www.nexteranfl.com/2197/2013-nfl-draft-evaluations-17-24/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2013-nfl-draft-evaluations-17-24 http://www.nexteranfl.com/2197/2013-nfl-draft-evaluations-17-24/#comments Sun, 19 May 2013 10:27:03 +0000 Jamie Kelly http://www.nexteranfl.com/?p=2197 It’s time to reveal the next 8 teams on our 2013 NFL Draft Value Evaluation Rankings. For information, on how this grading worked check out Part 1. Part 1 – Top 8 Part 2 – 9 to 16 Part 4 – Worst 8   Okay, let’s kick it off with the 17th ranked team on this [...]]]>

It’s time to reveal the next 8 teams on our 2013 NFL Draft Value Evaluation Rankings. For information, on how this grading worked check out Part 1.

Part 1 – Top 8

Part 2 – 9 to 16

Part 4 – Worst 8

 

Okay, let’s kick it off with the 17th ranked team on this countdown (as we move into the teams with negative overall scores)…

17. Oakland Raiders (-1.9)

I give a lot of praise to the Raiders for trading down in the 1st round, to get an extra 2nd round pick.

D.J. Hayden was one of the fastest late risers, I’ve seen in a long time. The injury scares the hell out of me, not so much because it could re-occur its the mental toll it surely has had on Hayden. For that reason, he didn’t get as good a RAP grade as he should of had based on talent alone and subsequently gave the Raiders a (-15.7) value for the pick.

LB Sio Moore (-9.0) and QB Tyler Wilson (-8.5) are solid players, but there were better players available in my opinion.

I like second round pick Menelik Watson (+8.7) and late round choices TE Nick Kasa (+6.8), TE Michel Rivera (+4.3) and DE David Bass (+9.5).

 

18. San Francisco 49ers (-2.0)

San Fran already have a stacked roster, so to add more players to that does seem a tad unfair. It also put the 49ers in a position to take some risks in the draft.

I’m not sold on Eric Reid (-13.2), but if any team can afford to take a chance it would be San Fran. TE Vance McDonald wasn’t a favorite of mine and subsequently counts as (-21.0) value pick.

On the flip side, superb value picks with DE Tank Carradine (+5.25), WR Quinton Patten (+7.5) and RB Marcus Lattimore (+11.0).

I also like the UDFA pick-up of T Luke Marquandt (+12.55).

 

19. Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.75)

As Luke Joeckel is slated to start at RT this season, this hurts the overall value of the pick (-13.2), as Joeckel’s RT RAP grade is lower than LT causing a greater disparity in value.

S Jonathon Cyprien (-13.05) and CB Dwayne Gratz (-8.1) went a bit high for my taste. FS Josh Evans was a big time sleeper and for a 6th round pick was awesome value (+17.2).

Solid UDFA choices QB Matt Scott (+10.7), QB Jordan Rodgers (+3.8) and TE Ryan Otten (+2.3) provide a nice boost to the overall grade.

Denard Robinson was given a zero, as i had only given him a RAP grade as a Receiver, not as a Running Back, which is where he is supposed to be playing at this year.

 

20. New Orleans Saints (-8.4)

The Saints were another example of how good undrafted players can really impact your entire draft class. UDFA LB’s Kevin Reddick (+10.8) & Chase Thomas (+10.75) should have really been drafted.

I loved the WR Kenny Stills pick (+18.8), but wasn’t a fan of the rest of the selections. FS Kenny Vacarro (-10.8), im not sure he as elite as people are making him out to be. LT Terron Armstead (-10.5) is really raw and DT John Jenkins (-14.1) will struggle to play a lot of downs in the NFL.


 

21. Green Bay Packers (-9.3)

DE Datone Jones (-9.6) wasn’t a personal favorite of mine, i saw him more of a late second round pick. The two running backs selected Eddie Lacy (+5.4) & Jonathon Franklin (+6.9) were both picked at excellent times by the Packers.

A few other small negatives for J.C. Tretter (-5.1), Bakhtari (-1.0) & Josh Boyd (-3.5) rounded things out.

 

22. Cincinnati Bengals (-10.4)

Cincinnati did well for the most part in this draft. TE Tyler Eifert (+1.4) and DE Margus Hunt (+5.25) were both very solid picks.

The 2nd round selection of RB Gio Bernard (-28.05) wasn’t a favorite of mine as there were a load of other “scat backs” I would have taken before him. The selections of S Shawn Williams (-3.5) and Cobi Hamilton (-8.6) were also reaches in my opinion.

However the selections of Sean Porter (+1.9) and T Reid Fragel (+21.2) were both very good value picks later on in the draft.

 

23. Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.7)

I liked pretty much all the Steelers selections in this draft except for one, QB Landry Jones (-22.7) that really hurt the grade.

Jarvis Jones (-0.2), Le’Veon Bell (+7.35), WR Markus Wheaton (-2.1) and Terry Hawthorne (+0.9) were all pretty much bang on value. S Shamarko Thomas was slightly early (-6.2), but not that big of a deal.

The UDFA pickup of C Joe Madsen (+8.9) was a good value choice by the Steelers.

 

24. Dallas Cowboys (-15.65)

The Cowboys were heavily criticized for the selection of C Travis Frederick with the 31st Overall pick. While it was a reach, it wasn’t as massive as people are making it out to be, as they received a (-14.8) grade for that pick.

Very small reaches in the later rounds with Escobar (-2.85), J.J. Wilcox (-3.4) and Joseph Randle (-4.9) make the score look worse than it should be. Another negative score with B.W Webb (-12.5) may be a better fit in Dallas’s Tampa 2 scheme than i gave him credit for in his RAP grade.

I loved the DeVonte Holloman pick (+22.2). Do not be surprised if he is the starting SAM linebacker this season. WR Terrance Williams (+0.6) was pretty much bang on value.

 

Take a look at the other installments in this series:

Part 1 – Top 8

Part 2 – 9 to 16

Part 4 – Worst 8

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2013 NFL Draft Value Evaluations – 9 to 16 http://www.nexteranfl.com/2196/2013-nfl-draft-evaluations-9-16/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2013-nfl-draft-evaluations-9-16 http://www.nexteranfl.com/2196/2013-nfl-draft-evaluations-9-16/#comments Sat, 18 May 2013 07:14:19 +0000 Jamie Kelly http://www.nexteranfl.com/?p=2196 It’s time to reveal the next 8 teams on our 2013 NFL Draft Value Evaluation Rankings. For information, on how this grading works check out Part 1. Part 1 – Top 8 Part 3 – 17 to 24 Part 4 – Worst 8   Okay, let’s kick it off with the 9th ranked team on [...]]]>

It’s time to reveal the next 8 teams on our 2013 NFL Draft Value Evaluation Rankings. For information, on how this grading works check out Part 1.

Part 1 – Top 8

Part 3 – 17 to 24

Part 4 – Worst 8

 

Okay, let’s kick it off with the 9th ranked team on this countdown…

 

9. Tennessee Titans (+28.2)

Tennessee were another team that started things off the right way with the selection of G Chance Warmack (+21.6) with the 10th Overall selection.

They got solid value for WR Justin Hunter (+0.9) with their second round pick,  with LB Zavier Gooden (+6.1) for their 3rd round choice and with Brian Schwenke (+9.1) in the fourth round.

Reaches for CB Blidi Wreh Wilson (-9.1) & Lavar Edwards (-9.2) didn’t help the overall score.

 

10. Houston Texans (+20.5)

Houston continue to do a nice job of drafting under GM Rick Smith.

I wasn’t a too high on the S D.J.Swearinger (-21.75) and DE Sam Montgomery (-7.1) picks, but the Texans’ First round pick WR DeAndre Hopkins (+3.6) was a solid choice.

Houston did a nice job in the lower rounds with DE/LB Trevardo Williams (+1.3), T/G David Quesenberry (+12.1) and DE Chris Jones (+22.8). I also liked the UDFA pick-up of CB Johnny Adams (+9.0) to round things out.

 

11. San Diego Chargers (+20.0)

San Diego proved in this off-season just how important picking solid UDFA’s can be for their roster. Superb pick-ups in DT Kwame Geathers (+8.35), CB Josh Johnson (+8.35), CB Marcus Cromartie (+7.5) and LT Nick Becton (+3.6) really gave the whole 2013 class of the Chargers a significant boost.

I think the Chargers themselves would acknowledge they reached for D.J. Fluker (-14.4) because of need along the offensive line.

LB Manti Te’o (+3.6) and WR Keenan Allen (+5.5) were both good value picks in the second and third round.

 

12. St. Louis Rams (+10.15)

I loved the Tavon Austin pick for St. Louis, but it didn’t to massively well in terms of positive value (+2.2). Other first round pick LB Alec Ogletree (-9.6) is very talented, but their was a ton of risk involved in the pick lowering his own individual RAP grade.

Both S T.J. McDonald (-9.6)  and WR Stedman Bailey (-5.3) were players I thought should have gone later than the third round.

The Rams recovered well with terrific selections of G Barrett Jones (+15.9) and RB Zac Stacy (+10.7). 5th round pick CB Brandon McGee (-4.1) was a slight reach, but the UDFA acquisition of TE Philip Lutzenkirchen (+9.55) rounded out a solid few days for the Rams.


 

13. Seattle Seahawks (+7.4)

Seattle were the first of the wildcard teams in this evaluation, due to the trade for Percy Harvin in exchange for their first round pick. To place a relative value on this, I went out and gave Harvin a RAP grade based on his career so far. That RAP grade turned out to be 107.2, nearly 20 RAP points higher than the value of Seattle’s 25th overall pick. However due to the large financial outlay, it was only fair to lower that total somewhat to give a fair representation of value. I elected to reduce the +19.3 increase to +10 that would go towards Seattle’s total.

I wasn’t a fan of the second round choice of RB Christine Michel (-23.7), but solid choices in Jordan Hill (+2.4), Jesse Williams (+21.0), Ty Powell (+1.8) and Tharold Simon (+2.5) rounded out a nice draft for the Seahawks.

 

14. New England Patriots (+3.8)

It was a very up and down draft, from the Patriots in 2013.

Superb value selections in LB Jamie Collins (+18.9) and DE Michael Buchanan (+16.5) were marred by relative reaches for WR Aaron Dobson (-19.5), CB Logan Ryan (-3.1) and WR Josh Boyce (-13.9).

I didn’t have a grade on the safety Harmon so he counted -5 to the Patriots total. The UDFA pick-up of DT Cory Grissom (+9.9) put the Patriots into a positive overall position.

 

15. Indianapolis Colts (+3.2)

The selection of Bjoern Werner (+9.2) was a good one with the 24th overall selection. Nice solid picks in round 2 and 3 of Hugh Thornton (+1.2) and C Khaled Holmes (-1.1) didn’t affect the overall grade too much.

Rounds 4 and 5 saw significant variety with the selections of DT Montari Hughes (-28.2), who was way over-rated in my eyes and the pick of S John Boyett (+22.2), who was way under-rated in my opinion.

 

16. Baltimore Ravens (+0.85)

The last team on this particular list, is also conveniently the last team with a positive grade giving us a nice 50/ 50 split.

As you would expect with a team so close to zero, the Ravens had some variations in terms of value. As we know Baltimore go BPA most of the time, so clearly there are some differences between my board and theirs.

Matt Elam (-8.8) was more of a second round guy in my opinion, DE John Simon (-11.6) is a hard-working guy, but im not sure if he ever will become a solid NFL player.

LB Arthur Brown (+12.15) was a great pick as was the 7th round choice of CB Marc Anthony (+21.0).

 

Go back to Part 1 – Top 8

Advance to Part 3 – 17 to 24

Advance to Part 4 – Worst 8

 

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2013 NFL Draft Value Evaluations – The Top 8 http://www.nexteranfl.com/2192/2013-nfl-draft-evaluations-top-8/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2013-nfl-draft-evaluations-top-8 http://www.nexteranfl.com/2192/2013-nfl-draft-evaluations-top-8/#comments Fri, 17 May 2013 15:29:58 +0000 Jamie Kelly http://www.nexteranfl.com/?p=2192 I think we all secretly hate draft grades. They are generally meaningless with the team that has the highest pick or the most 1st round selections or the team that drafts the most recognizable names receiving the highest ‘A’ grade. They say it takes 3 or 4 years to evaluate a draft class and i agree. So, [...]]]>

I think we all secretly hate draft grades. They are generally meaningless with the team that has the highest pick or the most 1st round selections or the team that drafts the most recognizable names receiving the highest ‘A’ grade. They say it takes 3 or 4 years to evaluate a draft class and i agree.

So, as its very difficult to predict the winners and losers of this draft right now, this mini series will be taking a slightly different approach to the 2013 draft evaluation.

For each and every selection made in the 2013 NFL Draft, each team had a choice, whether to go with Best Player Available or pick a player at a position of need? Neither method is wrong, but the crucial thing is to select players at a place in the draft, where you get the best value for that selection. Otherwise you limit your ability to collectively draft the most talent over the three days.

To evaluate how well each team did at this choice, I developed a system that should give us the results we are after. Here is how it will work:

Most players drafted this year were given a grade prior to the draft using our RAP System (click for more info), that is a good indication of where a player should be drafted based on his skill, physical ability, production, intangibles & past injury/ Character concerns.

With the player’s relative value established, we now need to compare that to the value of the draft choice. We did this by assigning each pick a RAP value of its own. These were the relative RAP values given to each particular selection (plus a value given to UDFA’s):

  • Top 5 – 105.0
  • Top 10 – 100
  • 10 to 20 – 92.5
  • 20 to 40 – 87.5
  • 2nd round – 82.5
  • Late 2/ Early 3 – 80
  • 3rd Round – 77.5
  • Late 3/ Early 4 – 75
  • 4th – 72.5
  • Late 4/ Early 5 – 70
  • 5th – 67.5
  • 6th – 62.5
  • 7th – 57.5
  • UDFA – 55.0

We now go onto compare each player’s RAP value, with the draft selection for where they were taken.

So, for example Spencer Ware, a running back from LSU was selected in the 6th Round by the Seattle Seahawks. That 6th round pick in our system was worth a value of 62.5 and Spencer Ware’s RAP value was 62.8. In this case the values are virtually identical meaning Seattle got good value for Ware in the 6th round. The difference between the two values is +0.3, that means Seattle got a little more value in the player they selected, than they did in the value of the pick.

We go onto to do that for every pick (and UDFA’s that were RAP graded prior to the draft) and total each of the differences between the values, that should show us (based on my evaluations) who got the best value out of their draft picks.

A few more rules were put in place before this took place.

  • The differences in values were multiplied by 2 for all 1st round picks (Due to the scrutiny and money invested in these choices).
  • The differences in values were multiplied by 1.5 for all 2nd round picks.
  • The differences in values were divided by 2 for all undrafted players (Due to the teams not securing them with a standard four year contact, that all draft picks get)
  • Any team that selected under the standard 7 picks, would be deducted 5 points off their total, for each pick under that amount.
  • Any player that wasn’t graded with the RAP system, were marked with -5 (for 3rd/ 4th round picks), -2.5 (for 5th round picks) and for 6th/ 7th & UDFA’s they simply counted zero towards the total.

So with all that explanation out of the way it’s time to look at the teams with the top 8 drafts rated using our system. (The results ranged from +84.05 to -67.65, so check back to nexteranfl.com over the coming days for the next parts in this mini series).

 

1. Minnesota Vikings (+84.05)

Minnesota came into the draft with two first round selections, and boy did they use them well. Florida DT Shariff Floyd was a tremendous value at #23 and contributed a +36.8 to the overall score (and was also the best value pick of the entire draft). They followed that up with the excellent value selection of Xavier Rhodes with the 25th overall pick that earned them another (+29.2).

The trade back up into the bottom of the first round to get Tennessee WR C. Patterson did them no favors in this evaluation. Patterson wasn’t a huge reach in my opinion but the (x2) multiplier for a first round pick meant that selection earned a (-12.0) score.

Good value picks later in the draft of Florida State DT Everette Dawkins (+3.1) & Penn State LB’s Gerald Hodges (+0.5) & Michael Mauti (+15.1) helped the grade. As did the UDFA pick up of NC State FS Branden Bishop (+13.85), a player i liked coming into the draft.


 

2. Denver Broncos (+75.75)

I love what Denver did, as they continuously drafted good value players throughout the draft. Only 7th Round pick QB Zac Dysert received a negative grade (-3.2) out of all Denver’s selections.

6th Round LT Vinston Painter (+19.2), 5th Round DE Quanterus Smith (+15.6), 3rd Round CB Kayvon Webster (+12.1) & Montee Ball (+12.45) all earned double digit positive value.

1st round pick DT Sylvester Williams was also a very solid pick receiving a (+6.6) grade. The acquisition of UCLA CB Aaron Hester as a UDFA (+12.2) also contributed.

 

3. Arizona Cardinals (+72.9)

Arizona was another team that consistently drafted well throughout the 3 days.

The 7th overall selection of G Jonathon Cooper (+10.8) started things off the right way. The picks of Tyrann Matthieu (+0.5) and Earl Watford (-0.2) were pretty much bang on value.

Late in the draft, the Cardinals did very well with the selections of DE Alex Okafor (+18.4), WR Ryan Swope (+18.2), RB Stephon Taylor (+4.2) and RB Andre Ellington (+6.4).

The UDFA picks of Javonne Lawson (+4.6) and in particular S Tony Jefferson (+18.25) really gave a boost to Arizona’s overall score.

The selection of Kevin Minter in the second round wasn’t the best in my opinion with a (-8.25) value.

 

4. Carolina Panthers (+53.15)

Carolina may have had only 5 draft selections in the draft, but they made them count. DT Star Lotulelei was great value at the 14th overall selection (+28) as was A.J. Klien in the 5th round (+20.8).

Kenjon Barner (+7.3), Kwaan Short (+7.05) & UDFA pickup Robert Lester (+5.0) also contributed.

As they only selected 5 players though, their overall total was deducted 10 points, but they still managed the 4th best value class.

 

5. Philadelphia Eagles (+48.95)

The Eagles was one of the weirdest evaluations done this year. Through four rounds of the draft i had the Eagles with a surprising (-32.4) grade.

The Lane Johnson pick (-14.8)  in reality, wasn’t that bad of a pick. I would have taken Star Lotulelei, but given the run on tackles i can understand the selection. Johnson was hovering around #10 or #11 on my board for most of the process and he would have been better value as a result towards the end of the top 10.

Things really picked up for the Eagles from round 5 onwards. FS Earl Wolff (+12.6), DE Joe Kruger (+30.9) & CB Jordan Poyer (+29.6) were all amazing selections that gave the Eagles score a real boost. UDFA’s P Brad Wing (+1.95) & RB Miguel Maysonset (+5.45) also contributed.


 

6. Washington Redskins (+48.6)

With no first round pick due to the RG3 trade, Washington did a tremendous job with the rest of their selections.

CB David Amerson (+23.4) was a massive steal in my eyes. As was S Phillip Thomas (+15.1), DE Brandon Jenkins (+17.0) & S Bacarri Rambo (+9.5).

The selections of TE Jordan Reed (-11.7) & RB Jawan Jamison (-7.1) weren’t the best, but the UDFA pickup of T Xavier Nixon (+4.9) ensured a solid few days for the Redskins.

 

7. Kansas City Chiefs (+35.25)

The Chiefs couldn’t have started any better as they selected the #1 player on my board since January in Tackle Eric Fisher (+15.6).

Solid selections of TE Travis Kelce (+1.5), LB Nico Johnson (+2.4), CB Sanders Commings (+7.2) & DE Mike Catapano (+14.7) ensured continued success throughout.

The UDFA pickup of Tyler Bray (+14.45) could prove to be incredibly valuable in the coming years.

The one knock on the class was the 3rd round pick of RB Knile Davis (-20.6), that was a significant reach in my view.

 

8. Atlanta Falcons (+30.00)

Another outstanding draft by Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff, has really given Atlanta a big boost heading into the 2013 season.

CB Desmond Trufant was an excellent value pick (+20.2) that got things off on the right foot. The 2nd round pick of CB Robert Alford (-12.3) could have been better used, but we will see how he plays this season.

The Falcons continued to use their choices very well consistently gaining positive scores with DE Malliciah Goodman (+0.8), TE Levine Toilolo (+5.0), DE Stansly Maponga (+1.8), S Zeke Motta (+4.5) and QB Sean Renfree (10.0).

For more on the Falcons draft, go check out our review of every Falcons 2013 draft choice.

 

That’s most of the nice high scores out of the way, check out Part 2 for the next 8 teams.

Part 3 – 17 to 24.

Part 4 – Worst 8.

 

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Atlanta Falcons 2013 NFL Draft Review – NENFL Analysis http://www.nexteranfl.com/2178/atlanta-falcons-2013-draft-review-nenfl-analysis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=atlanta-falcons-2013-draft-review-nenfl-analysis http://www.nexteranfl.com/2178/atlanta-falcons-2013-draft-review-nenfl-analysis/#comments Thu, 16 May 2013 17:59:38 +0000 Jamie Kelly http://www.nexteranfl.com/?p=2178 The Falcons were primed for a run at the Superbowl in 2012, but fell at the last hurdle in the NFC Championship game. With notable players John Abraham, Michael Turner & Dunta Robinson getting released, it was important that the Falcons reloaded through the 2013 draft, if they had any shot at returning to the NFC Championship [...]]]>

The Falcons were primed for a run at the Superbowl in 2012, but fell at the last hurdle in the NFC Championship game. With notable players John Abraham, Michael Turner & Dunta Robinson getting released, it was important that the Falcons reloaded through the 2013 draft, if they had any shot at returning to the NFC Championship game.

Let’s take a look at each of their selections:

Round 1 – 22nd Overall : Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington.

Desmond+Trufant+Stanford+v+Washington+lYxEX5pVyNZx

A really smart 8 place trade-up made sure the Falcons secured their man. The trade-up was necessary to acquire Trufant, as I am sure he would have been snapped up before the Falcons original 30th Overall selection came around.

I had a 96.7 RAP grade on Trufant, that is the equivalent of a high teens first round value, so to be acquired at #22 was very good business. With the Falcons looking at running more off-man looks this year, it ruled out another highly rated corner Xavier Rhodes, as the scheme doesn’t necessarily fit him the best. During film study, Trufant was clearly the corner who excelled the most in off-man coverage in the entire draft, due to his speed and tenacity.

When the trade up went through, i was considering that Trufant or Shariff Floyd could be the selection. I had Floyd rated higher, but clearly the Falcons didn’t want to commit to operating a 1 gap scheme, as Floyd would need to succeed, so i can’t complain too much about the Trufant over Floyd selection.

Trufant should be a solid starter from day 1, he may not be a perennial pro-bowler, but he should at least be in the discussion every year for the duration of his rookie deal.

 


Round 2 – 60th Overall : Robert Alford, CB, Southeastern Louisiana

Robert+Alford+2013+Senior+Bowl+JMuq53fm73Mx

I have to admit, I wasn’t a massive fan of this pick. I gave Alford a 71.2 RAP grade, that is equivalent to a fourth round value, so clearly I didn’t have him rated as high as some.

He possesses some nice tools, but you didn’t get to see him play week in and week out against good competition, so there is an element of doubt there.

I can’t see Alford developing into anything more than a Nickel corner in Atlanta, and if that was what they were after I would have opted for Leon McFadden from San Diego State.

Double dipping at Corner with the first two picks also seemed a bit unnecessary, as a second corner could of been had later in the draft of an equivalent value of Alford.

 

Round 4 – 127th Overall : Malliciah Goodman, DE, Clemson

Malliciah+Goodman+Atlanta+Falcons+Rookie+Camp+r06JJhsavxOx

A really solid selection here by the Falcons. I had Goodman with a 70.9 RAP rating, equivalent to a late 4th rounder, which is exactly where Atlanta snagged him.

The Falcons needed to add a pass rusher to the rotation and Goodman is a great fit as 43 Left Defensive End. He will probably only be a back-up in year 1, but as he develops he can become a solid member of the rotation and potentially even a bit-part starter.

 

Round 4 – 133rd Overall : Levine Toilolo, TE, Stanford.

Levine+Toilolo+Arizona+v+Stanford+ObCuu8bYC54x

Another really good selection by Atlanta here. Toilolo was the last of my top tight ends available and to get the 6’8″ giant at the end of the fourth was really good going.

I had a 75.9 RAP grade on him, so the Falcons really good a good steal with this pick. I can Toilolo becoming their heir apparent to Tony Gonzalez, and eventually becoming a decent starter in the NFL, once Tony retires.

 

Round 5 – 153rd Overall : Stansly Maponga, DE, TCU.

Stansly+Maponga+Atlanta+Falcons+Rookie+Camp+O3w8BPuDHr6x

The Falcons continued to draft well late, balancing need and value incredibly well. Maponga is a slightly different prospect to Goodman, as Maponga could see some snaps at RDE and at linebacker.

A 69.3 RAP grade combined with his Yearly projections, see Maponga only really as a rotational piece for Atlanta. Right now, I can’t see him developing into a solid starter for the Falcons, but this is still a very solid depth selection.


 

Round 7 – 243rd Overall : Kemal Ishmael, DB, Central Florida.

Kemal+Ishmael+Southern+Miss+v+Central+Florida+8s3tKKNrPp7x

I have to admit, I hadn’t graded Ishmael prior to the draft, so i can’t give an indication of value. However i can see why the Falcons used one of their 7th round choices on him.

Ishmael was the Conference-USA Defensive Player of the Year in 2012 and was a very good productive leader for UCF throughout his career. He will compete with Charles Mitchell for a roster spot in training camp.

 

Round 7 – 244th Overall : Zeke Motta, S, Notre Dame.

Zeke+Motta+USC+v+Notre+Dame+ZBtym2VTTbJx

I was surprised at the time to hear another safety get selected immediately after Ishmael, but i like the pick here.

I’m expecting Motta to eventually transition to outside linebacker, where i can see him developing into a solid pro. Motta’s special team ability will likely get him on the 53 man roster in 2013.

 

Round 7 – 249th Overall : Sean Renfree, QB, Duke.

Sean+Renfree+Belk+Bowl+Cincinnati+v+Duke+AAQPHGQLdSHx

When a former coach of Peyton Manning, announces a player to have Peyton Manning type work ethic, you should take notice.

Renfree was given such praise at Duke and could become massive steal for Atlanta. If he can develop physically he could well become the Falcons #2 and give Matt Ryan a little push. With Ryan entrenched as the starter, Renfree may be flipped for a higher draft choice some point down the line.

 

For more NFL and NFL Draft Coverage follow me @NextEraDraft.

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2014 NFL Draft – Edge Rushers Class Pre-Season Preview http://www.nexteranfl.com/2163/2014-nfl-draft-edge-rushers-class-pre-season-preview/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2014-nfl-draft-edge-rushers-class-pre-season-preview http://www.nexteranfl.com/2163/2014-nfl-draft-edge-rushers-class-pre-season-preview/#comments Wed, 15 May 2013 13:56:56 +0000 Jamie Kelly http://www.nexteranfl.com/?p=2163 If you’re a frequent visitor to NextEraNFL.com you would have known, how down i was on the top of the 2013 class of Pass Rushers. In my view, the lack of production from Ziggy Ansah and Barkevious Mingo made it ridiculous to consider them in the top 10. It wasn’t just the lack of production [...]]]>

If you’re a frequent visitor to NextEraNFL.com you would have known, how down i was on the top of the 2013 class of Pass Rushers. In my view, the lack of production from Ziggy Ansah and Barkevious Mingo made it ridiculous to consider them in the top 10. It wasn’t just the lack of production though, worrying traits in their play, led me to believe both would only be future role players, certainly not future pro bowlers. Dion Jordan, was a player i grew to like as a first round pick as the process went on, but i had him more as a mid first round pick, the 3rd overall pick was a bit steep in my book.

Turning ahead to the 2014 class, you won’t find me complaining about this group. A fantastic mix of production, skill and athleticism from this class, has led me to give 3 edge rushers, future top 10/ future pro bowler worthy grades.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at our top 5 Edge Rushers heading into the year, rated using our RAP system. (I have also listed the position, for which they received the highest RAP grade).

* Denotes underclassmen

1. Jadaveon Clowney*, DE, South Carolina – RAP (123.1) (43 RE)

clowney1

Player Comparison – Julius Peppers/ Reggie White/ Bruce Smith

Wow!. Its the one word that aptly sums up Clowney’s game. Sometimes the hype train gets up to much steam and really does go too far, but in Clowney’s case he deserves every shred of hype he is getting.

Clowney is a once in a generation type player that possess a ridiculous combination of athleticism, size and power that makes him as close to a “perfect” pro prospect, that you will find. The scary part is he is still growing and getting stronger and should only improve as he enters his junior season at South Carolina.

As many have speculated, Clowney would have been the #1 overall pick in the 2013 draft,  if rules had allowed him to enter the draft early. For many players, that would be a difficult pill to swallow, but I believe that Clowney has a smart head on his shoulders and he will use that as motivation to produce another dominating season at the collegiate level.

To put his 123.1 RAP grade into perspective, it is the highest RAP grade i have given a prospect in the four years i have used the RAP system. The second highest (Robert Griffin III) was five points lower at 118.0.

While i have shown the Right Defensive End to be his best position, he could pretty much play anywhere in the front seven and have major success, he is that good!


 

2. Anthony Barr*, OLB, UCLA– RAP (109.3) (34 WLB)

Anthony+Barr+USC+v+UCLA+7_iTjYSqYZlx

Player Comparison – DeMarcus Ware

In Barr’s first season playing as a pass rusher he recorded 13 sacks and 21 TFL’s, not too bad at all! After being converted from a fullback to outside linebacker prior to the 2012 season, Anthony Barr exploded onto the college football scene.

He possesses a great get off the snap and edge rush speed that you are always looking for from a prospective pass rusher. His technique is surprisingly good for a player only in his first year at the position and he should continue to get better.

What seals the deal for me on Barr is his point of attack strength. Most guys with his size and speed rush tendencies tend to be a liability as a run defender, Barr is very much an exception to that trend and has shown he has the ability to play all 3 downs in the NFL.

Barr could play either Right Defensive End in a 43 or the Will linebacker in a 34. I would say right now that 34 WLB is where he would be best at, and he could then drop down easily to an end in nickel situations.

Barr is very much still developing and if he continues to produce, and go on to develop his counter moves further, I wouldn’t hesitate using a top 10 pick on him.

 

3. Kyle Van Noy, OLB, BYU – RAP (104.3) (34 WLB)

VanNoy

Player Comparison – Von Miller

Van Noy would probably have should of come out last year as he would have been the #1 rated 2013 pass rusher if he had. As it is he is the #3 pass rusher in 2014, which probably undersells his abilities somewhat.

Van Noy is a versatile, explosive athlete that can really do it all. He sacked the QB 13 times a year ago due to his first step quickness, nicely developed pass rush technique and relentless motor.

In the NFL, Van Noy would probably be best as an outside linebacker in a 34 scheme or a SAM linebacker in a 43 system that allows him to be used like a Von Miller is used in Denver.

 

4. Jackson Jeffcoat, DE, Texas – RAP (80.5) (43 RE)

jackson-jeffcoat-texas-longhorns

Player comparison – John Abraham

Jackson Jeffcoat is one player i will be fixated on during the 2013 College football season. Jeffcoat has had consistently solid production throughout his college career until he suffered a torn pectoral muscle, midway through the 2012 season.

If he can return to his former self, this grade will get higher, but he needs to prove it first, as it’s a tough injury for an edge rusher to recover from.

Like Abraham he is a pass rush specialist, that struggles in the running game. He can come in day 1 and be a 3rd down rusher for an NFL team, whether he can become a full time defensive end remains to be seen. If he can play the run better in 2013, it will go a long way to prove he can play all 3 downs at the NFL level.


 

5. DeMarcus Lawrence, DE, Boise State – RAP (77.4) (43 LE)

lawrence

Player Comparison – Robert Mathis

Lawrence isn’t one of these quick twitch guys but he does have a good all around game, that makes him a nice NFL prospect.

Although a bit inconsistent at times, Lawrence can get off the snap very well and get around the corner, he can also get to the QB with a nice set of moves and good power for his size.

He doesn’t stand out in any one particular area, but I like him as a starting base 43 left end in the NFL.

 

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2014 NFL Draft – Interior Offensive Lineman Class Pre-Season Preview http://www.nexteranfl.com/2145/2014-nfl-draft-interior-offensive-lineman-class-pre-season-preview/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2014-nfl-draft-interior-offensive-lineman-class-pre-season-preview http://www.nexteranfl.com/2145/2014-nfl-draft-interior-offensive-lineman-class-pre-season-preview/#comments Mon, 13 May 2013 11:47:17 +0000 Jamie Kelly http://www.nexteranfl.com/?p=2145 The 2013 draft was a special occasion for interior lineman, with two (Jonathon Cooper & Chance Warmack) going in the top 10 picks for the first time in history. Will that be repeated this year? Well it’s highly unlikely given the relative strength of the draft at the 4 power positions (QB, LT, DE, CB), [...]]]>

The 2013 draft was a special occasion for interior lineman, with two (Jonathon Cooper & Chance Warmack) going in the top 10 picks for the first time in history. Will that be repeated this year? Well it’s highly unlikely given the relative strength of the draft at the 4 power positions (QB, LT, DE, CB), however that doesn’t mean this class lacks the talent.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at our top 5 Interior lineman heading into the year, rated using our RAP system.

* Denotes underclassmen

1. Xavier Su’a-Filo*, OG, UCLA – RAP (104.0) (OG)

xavier sua

Player Comparison – Jahri Evans

His name might not be well known (or easy to say) but Su’a-Filo is one mighty good prospect. He has amazing movement skills for a guard in pulling and in advancing on linebackers, that make him a terrific fit for today’s NFL.

He also has supreme power and good feet, that allows him to lock onto defenders and push them around the field. In pass protection, he re-anchors beautifully and doesn’t get pushed back because of his tremendous lower and upper body strength.

Su’a-Filo is a complete package when scouting for a modern day Guard, as he can do anything a coach needs him to do. He can even play Center or Right Tackle if needed because of his athleticism.

His name has been off the map for a while, as he participated in a Mormon mission for two years and only returned to school for his sophomore year in 2012. If he chooses to come out after the 2013 season, he will be a first round pick and likely go onto be a Pro-Bowl talent in the NFL.


 

2. David Yankey, OG, Stanford – RAP (96.6) (OG)

yankey

Player Comparison – Logan Mankins

Stanford have become (along with Alabama) the Offensive Line university in recent times and continue to churn out fundamentally sound lineman.

Yankey is the next one on the conveyor belt and is just as good as those that have come before him. Yankey played Left Tackle last season, but will slide back into Guard (his more natural position) in 2013.

As you would expect Yankey is very good in the run game and has been lauded by his coaching staff as the “best pulling offensive lineman in the country”, so clearly, he has the movement ability.

Yankey probably is a mid to late first round value at this point, but with a solid year in 2013 playing Guard he may be able to creep up a bit higher in the 1st.

 

3. Cyril Richardson, OG, Baylor – RAP (96.1) (OG)

NCAA Football: Baylor vs Texas Tech

Player Comparison – Mike Iupati

If big, powerful lineman are your thing, you will love Cyril Richardson. He is absolutely dominating at the point of attack, thanks to his 6’5″, 335 lb frame.

Like Iupati, if you put him in a run heavy scheme you will reap big rewards, as this guy will eat up most defensive tackles in the NFL.

The downside of his huge frame, is he isn’t tremendously mobile and won’t be able to the the things a Sua-Filo or Jonathon Cooper can do. However he does move well enough to be able to most things an NFL offense requires.

He is one of these guys who has clear strengths and weaknesses. Play to his strengths and it will pay big dividends for your offense.

 

4. Zack Martin, OT/G, Notre Dame – RAP (76.4) (OG)

zack martin

Player comparison – Justin Blalock

Currently a Left Tackle for Notre Dame, Martin will likely have to make the switch to Guard at the NFL level.

Martin isn’t a “wow” type player, but he is very fundamentally sounds and makes very few mistakes. Martin has made 38 starts already heading into his senior year, so clearly is experienced and knows the game.

I like the comparison to Falcons Guard Justin Blalock, a very solid player that doesn’t make mistakes and doesn’t miss time through injuries.

Once Martin learns to play Guard at the NFL level he could become a decent NFL starting Guard.


 

5. Bryan Stork, OC, Florida State – RAP (75.3) (OC)

Bryan Stork

Player Comparison – Matt Birk

The first pure center on this list, Stork is another solid football player. While i compare him to Matt Birk, it’s more of a physical comparison, i don’t see him being as good a player as Birk was.

Stork is probably a center only as he struggled when faced up one on one in College with defensive tackles. He’s an intelligent player that knows who needs the help along the offensive line and also does a good job of making line adjustments.

Stork looks like a third round type pick at the moment and should be able to do be a solid roster player that hangs around in the NFL for some time.

 

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