The NextEra “Moneyball” System Developed For The NFL

Welcome to the NextEra NFL Player Evaluation System – “RAP”

The system involves basic scouting principles at its heart but uses math to create a system devoid of bias, geared to providing you with the best players for your particular positional philosophy and scheme.

In our grades we have used the “prototype” for each position as our measure. As we know each team has different philosophies for each position so the ratings can be changed to match a team’s philosophy.

Have a quick look at our system in action in our NextEra NFL Mock Draft.

This system has been developed to combat three main problems, that teams have had in the past, when selecting players:

The first factor was the problem of biased & emotionally driven selections. Obvious examples include Jamarcus Russell to the Raiders & Ted Ginn Jr to the Dolphins. These are simple cases when an evaluator falls in love with an aspect of that player’s makeup which in effect blinds him to potential concerns in other aspects of his game and/or character.

The second factor was undervaluing a player’s intangibles or skill in favour of physical ability with the mind-set “we can coach him up”. According to the research, physical freaks are only ever great if that body is combined with a well-rounded character that will enable him to learn the skills required to succeed. Julio Jones, will be one of the best wide receivers in the NFL because he has immense athleticism alongside a great work ethic.

The final factor was over drafting for a position of need. Overvaluing certain positions especially at the top of the draft has been the cause of many errors in the last 15 years.

Our system was designed to try to overcome these issues and try to provide an outcome which shows how valuable a player is currently and should be in the future.

This system works by grading four overall categories:

• Skill
• Natural Ability
• Intangibles
• Production to date

Each category is then broken down into multiple sub categories. For example in Skill for a QB you would grade individually his decision making ability, arm strength, deep accuracy etc… and in Intangibles you would do the same for consistency, coachability & leadership amongst others.

By separating each sub-category grade, this prevents an evaluator leaning too much on one particular aspect of a player to make up the full assessment, giving us a fairer and more accurate assessment of a player.

The process eventually provides us with three scores for each player:

• Current Ability
• Ceiling Potential
• Risk Adjusted Potential or RAP -  The most important figure to notice when talking about the draft

Typically the following scores lead to the corresponding NFL production for that particular role or position :-

• Hall of fame in waiting (115+)
• All Pro (110–115)
• Pro Bowler (100-110)
• Reliable Starter (90-100)
• Lower end starter/ Solid reserve (80-90)
• Backup (70-80)
• Marginal 53 man roster player (60-70)
• Unlikely to make a roster (<60).

n.b. Special team ability is included as a separate grade to the main positional grade.

Not every player will reach their “ceiling potential”; in fact a large majority will not. To comply with this fact, we have created the “Risk Adjusted Potential” score. This score takes into account the “ceiling potential” and works with our risk score to give an accurate assessment of the how successful that player will be in the future.

Simply put, the lower the risk score, the closer to the “ceiling potential” that player will get and vice versa. The risk score encompasses a variety of factors such as injury history, scheme familiarity etc.

“RAP” is the most important rating as this grade tells you if you draft/ sign this player this is the level of talent you should in all likelihood receive in the future.

Players are able to have multiple ratings, one per particular position. Georgia Pass Rusher Jarvis Jones has three ratings, 106.95 (Von Miller Role), 95.12 (4-3 DE) and 99.96 (3-4 OLB). Each of these ratings are different as to show based on his current and potential skills, physical stature and production how effective that player can be at the different roles and the different challenges each position entails.

The risk score can also change per position. So for example if a player transitions from Center to Guard there are a certain number of difficulties that could occur such as lack of awareness of how to play the position or the physical changes required to play the position i.e. need to gain weight/ strength.

For more information on this system you can contact us at jamie.kelly@nexterasportsmedia.com

We will soon be making a spreadsheet available for purchase with all the formula installed so you can make up your own draft board based on your positional philosophy. For more information on the launch date contact us at the email address above.

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